SPATIAL PATTERNS OF TUBERCULOSIS INCIDENCE IN BUFFALO CITY MUNICIPALITY, EASTERN CAPE PROVINCE, SOUTH AFRICA: THE DISEASE MAP APPROACH

Davies Obaromi, N G Johnson, Qin Yongsong, J Ndege, J O Ejikeme

Abstract


The purpose of this research was to investigate the spatial and temporal distribution of tuberculosis (TB) between 2008 to 2015, and to also identify clusters of higher prevalence and incidence of TB in Buffalo City Municipality, Eastern Cape Province of South Africa, in order to generate a disease atlas. Spatial patterns and distribution of disease incidence were investigated using the Arc GIS 9.2 and descriptive statistics by a graphical ranking method imposed on the map. Also clustering techniques was used to identify the exact locations for high and low incidences of TB. The cluster mappings were also produced as building blocks in the profiling of the TB cases. GIS queries were also carried out to further emphasize the clustering patterns of the disease for the period of 2008-2015.From our investigations and findings, four clusters of high incidence of TB was identified in East London, Mdantsane, Duncan village and King William's Town for all the years under study. This high prevalence of TB cases in those locations also showed a high association with HIV/AIDS prevalence. The GIS showed an eastward outlook in the prevalence of TB in the municipality. The combined cluster map and GIS queries also showed an eastward high prevalence of TB.TB prevalence in the municipality showed a systematic pattern in the distribution of the disease cases in the region and is found to concentrate in areas of high HIV/AIDS rates and also areas mostly populated by Blacks. Multifaceted and hidden relationships may exist between TB incidence and a wide range of environmental and inherent factors, which call for future research.

Keywords: Geographical Information System, Statistics, Tuberculosis, Spatial Epidemiology


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