MONITORING AND PREDICTING THE LAND USE / LAND COVER TRANSFORMATIONS USING CELLULAR AUTOMATA (CA) MARKOV MODEL IN AGULU-NANKA-OKO AND EKWULOBIA GULLY EROSION COMPLEXES OF ANAMBRA STATE NIGERIA

Abstract

The determination of land use and cover changes during long periods of time and predicting the future changes is highly important and useful for the land use managers. In this study, the land use maps in Agulu-Nanka-Oko and Ekwulobia gully erosion complexes of Anambra state south east Nigeria for four periods (1985, 1995, 2005 and 2020) were extracted and analyzed with Remote Sensing technique, using the Land-Sat Satellite Images. Then, the future land use changes are simulated for 2030 using Integrated CA-Markov Model according to the scenario of continuing current management process. Satellite Image analysis showed that between 1985 and 2020, eroded land, built up land and agricultural land increased, while vegetation and water body decreased. Vegetation and water bodies were converted to eroded land, built up land and Agricultural. The projection made by the application of CA-Markov showed that in the year 2030 the eroded land would increase significantly in the next 10 years (2030). The obtained Kappa values for the model accuracy assessment was higher than 0.8, this is an indication that the model has capacity to predict future Land use/cover changes in the study area. Thus, analyzing Land use and cover changes trends from past to near future using CA-Markov model can play a significant role in land use policy making, planning, and managing of the restricted plains especially in the proposed study area.

Keywords: CA-Markov, Land Cover, Land-Sat, Land Use, Remote Sensing